Second Pass: An Attempt to Account for Iraq Oil Revenue and Income

Premise #1: If we can just use the figures quoted in my April 14, 2008 blog, we know that:
- Southern Iraq appears to be exporting 1.60M bpd
- Northern Iraq appears to be exporting 0.35M bpd (though news reports are already saying that this is climbing to 0.40M bpd)

Premise #2: Let's say that both are being exported at a bargain price of USD$80/b. Therefore, we could expect the following in export revenues:
- Southern Iraq revenue: USD$47B
- Northern Iraq revenue: USD$10B

Premise #3: Let's say that the cost of crude oil production $10/b, amongst the lowest in the world. Therefore we could expect the following in incoming cash income:
- Southern Iraq income: USD$41B
- Northern Iraq income: USD$9B

While you can argue with my premises, I would suggest that this is the easy part. I think that I'm not off by huge amounts, and likely within a margin of 10-20% error.

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So, now, here are the tough questions:
1. How much of the Southern and Northern Iraq income transfer to the Central Government?
2. How much of the Southern Iraq income flow to the Sadr militia?
3. Does any income flow to the US?
4. Does the US enjoy any other benefits of this production, including: quotas on production, discount prices, internal transfer to in-country forces, etc.?
5. How much oil is stolen? And by whom?

These are crucial questions because it may determine who fights whom for the rights to the income. Is this why the Central government launched an attack on Sadr?